Whole House Commodity Index 12/15/15

graph Dec-2015

Whole House Commodity Index - December 2015

By Don Magruder

 

The Ro-Mac Lumber & Supply, Inc. Whole House Commodity Index in December gave back its 0.2 percent increase from November, as the market struggled to find a direction.  There is really no impetus to push pricing upwards, and with winter arriving later this year, pricing probably should have been firmer.  National weather forecasters are predicting winter to start in earnest the last week of December.  That prediction along with the holidays should have a chilling effect on pricing.

New home demand (while better) remains below historical averages.  Talk of a recession, plus interest rate increases in 2016 will not help.  The country needs a reset in regulations and some type of housing policy for production levels to return to historic norms. The collapse in the energy sector as well as other commodities could have a nasty impact on housing in the oil patch.  There are a lot of moving parts, and not many are moving in favor of housing. 

Here are some notable price movers in this month’s Index:

  1. Mortar mix was down 4.4 percent while sand gave back 2.3 percent, thanks to lower fuel pricing.
  2. Pine dimensional wood was mixed with 2x4 dropping 2.0 percent and wide width 2x12s adding 2.0 percent. 
  3. Spruce dimensional was basically flat with studs retreating 5.9 percent.
  4. Trusses added 1.0 percent on higher cost for specified grades.
  5. CDX pine increased 1.4 percent while OSB sheathing gave back 7.5 percent.  This is a reversal from the prior month and indicates the market is looking for a direction from demand.

The holidays and winter will be higher pricing’s biggest enemy over the next few weeks.  Something tells me the holidays and winter will win.

Thank you so much for reading the Ro-Mac Lumber & Supply, Inc. Whole House Commodity Index, and please share it with your friends.  The report is free—just email us if you would like to be on the list.  From our family to yours, I hope and pray you have a Merry Christmas and a very prosperous New Year!

The Ro-Mac Lumber & Supply, Inc. Whole House Commodity Index is based on wholesale costs of the base components to build a 2,200 square foot wood frame home with a concrete stem wall in Central Florida.  The Index includes foundation, metal, concrete, block, stucco, cement, wood framing, siding, sheathings, trusses, roofing, drywall, insulation, windows, doors, trim, garage doors, and most building hardware.  It does not include décor, electrical, plumbing, mechanical, landscaping, or labor.  Because the Index uses current wholesale costs, this should be a strong indicator of the direction of building prices for the next 30-45 days.

Don Magruder is the Chief Executive Officer of Ro-Mac Lumber & Supply, Inc. in Central Florida.  Go to www.romaclumber.com to sign-up for the Index and other free market reports.  To sign-up for this information via email, contact Rebecca Ballash at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .

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